A latest study, conducted by researchers at Yale University and published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, says that if people isolate themselves, the demand for ICU beds will decrease rapidly.
— Abdul El-Sayed (@AbdulElSayed) April 4, 2020
Of the countries hit by the coronavirus, China has been the only one to curb the virus spread. Yale University professor, Alison Galvani, and her colleagues at the Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), conducted this analysis. They examined the spread of virus the US and analyzed it against how people going into isolation would decrease the need for ICU beds.
Expert warn that if the USA wants to avoid the disasters the virus can cause, the only way is to force people to self-isolate, otherwise it will suffer like Italy.
The researchers evaluated different scenarios including the number of people suffering from the virus, the chance of its spread if they isolate and how it will affect the ICU beds.
The results show that if coronavirus patients don’t detach themselves from others, the need for ICU beds would increase by four times, particularly for the people who will be severely affected by the virus. 65% of the ICU beds are already taken by the patients suffering from the virus. The demand for the ICU beds will fall by half if people with mild symptoms self-isolate.
Alison Galvani says:
It is crucial in terms of minimizing the imbalance of supply and demand for ICU beds for people to stay home and stop transmission. Our results underscore the importance of giving everyone the means to stay at home if they or their children feel unwell. The majority of ICU beds are already occupied, and you can’t discharge people with other serious illnesses who also need intensive care. A shortage of ICU beds affects the mortality from other diseases too.
She believes that if a person feels mild symptoms like flu, they should self-isolate. It would help the hospitals to protect beds for the critical COVID-19 patients and it will help halt the spread of the virus. She says that the most important point is to slow down the peak and delay the death rate and it is only possible if people cooperate. The slow progression of the disease would spare us the time to make more ICU beds. The production of beds is extremely important and needs to be done now.